Land cover change analysis and trend prediction by the GM(1,1) model in Changzhutan region
GUO Rong-zhong, SHEN Hai-jian, YANG Min-hua
2020, 59(16):
54-60.
doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.16.011
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The land cover changes and the land use intensity in Changzhutan area from 2002 to 2014 were evaluated quantitatively, and its changed trends were predicted and analyzed by the GM(1,1) model. The results showed that great changes were observed in various types of land uses in the Changzhutan area from 2002 to 2014, including a net increase in the area of urban and rural land, industrial and mining land, and transportation land, and a net decrease in the area of other types of land. In the same period, the land reclamation index in Changzhutan area decreased year by year. The land development intensity index, land utilization rate index and land utilization intensity composite index all showed an increasing trend year by year. At the same time, various types of land use in the studied areas from 2017 to 2026 are predicted that unused land, gardens, grasslands, wetlands, arable land, woodlands and water areas would be to some extent reduced with the change rates about -19.15%, -12.31%, -7.10%, -3.12%, -2.80%, -1.18%, respectively. However, the areas of land for transportation, residential areas and industrial and mining land have been increased with the change rates of 35.57% and 15.61%, respectively.