Research on the suitable habitat for Moschus berezovskii based on maximum entropy model（MaxEnt） in climatic background

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.034

Abstract

Abstract: According to the published geographic distribution data and habitat climate data of Moschus berezovskii in China, the key meteorological factors affecting the probability of existence of Moschus berezovskii were extracted by knife cutting method. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to analyze the habitat range of Moschus berezovskii in China under different scenarios. The results showed that eight key climate factors had important influences on the distribution of Moschus berezovskii, including precipitation in the warmest season, mean temperature in the driest season, precipitation in the wettest season, annual average temperature, seasonal temperature difference, mean temperature in the wettest season, mean temperature in the warmest season and precipitation in the driest season; the habitat prediction model of Moschus berezovskii was examined by receiver operating characteristic curve, and the prediction results reached an excellent level （AUC=0.993）. Under the current scenario, the suitable area of Moschus berezovskii was mainly distributed in the south of Tengchong-Mohe line, with an area of 4.13×10⁶ km², accounting for 43% of China's land area; under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the suitable area of Moschus berezovskii decreased in the 2050s（2040—2059）, and the lowly suitable area decreased up to 50%; compared with the 2050s, the suitable area of Moschus berezovski increased under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios in 2080s（2070—2089）, but it decreased under RCP8.5 scenarios. The southeast region, which was dominated by plain and hilly landforms, would respond poorly to future climate change, while the southwest region, which was dominated by mountainous landforms, would respond well to future climate change. Therefore, it was suggested to establish a Moschus berezovskii reserve with the southwest region as the core, and strictly control the personnel entering the reserve, so as to achieve the purpose of better protecting the wild Moschus berezovskii.

Key words: Moschus berezovskii, MaxEnt model, climate change, habitat adaptation, species protection

CLC Number:

ZHAO Jin-peng, WANG Qing, ZHENG Cheng-li, HU Jing-yuan, WANG Ru-lin, JIANG Gan. Research on the suitable habitat for Moschus berezovskii based on maximum entropy model（MaxEnt） in climatic background[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(3): 218-223.

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