Potential geographic distribution and prediction of future habitat of Amygdalus mongolica in Inner Mongolia

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.16.023

Abstract

Abstract: Taking Inner Mongolia as the research area, based on 61 distribution sites of Amygdalus mongolica population and 39 environmental variables, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS technology were used to explore the environmental variables affecting the growth of Amygdalus mongolica. The suitable areas of Amygdalus mongolica in Inner Mongolia under different climate scenarios in the middle of 21 century（the 2050s） were predicted. The results showed that the main factors determining the growth of Amygdalus mongolica were the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature, altitude, average precipitation in the hottest season, slope, aspect, annual average temperature, isotherm and precipitation in the wettest month, and the cumulative contribution rate was 92.0%. Temperature, topography and precipitation had a greater effect on the growth of Amygdalus mongolica, while soil factors had a smaller effect; under the current climate, the Amygdalus mongolica would be mainly distributed in the desert areas of Alxa Left Banner, Alxa Right Banner, Wulat Back Banner, Wulat Middle Banner, Dengkou County and Wuhai City; Under different climate scenarios in the future of the 2050s, the area of suitable habitat for Amygdalus mongolica would increase, and the suitable habitat would tend to migrate to the north and east of Inner Mongolia.

Key words: Amygdalus mongolica, climate change, MaxEnt, geographic distribution, Inner Mongolia

CLC Number:

Q948

HAO Rui-min, HE Xiao-hui, ZHU Li, XIE Jing-yan, ZHANG Xiu-feng. Potential geographic distribution and prediction of future habitat of Amygdalus mongolica in Inner Mongolia[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2022, 61(16): 121-126.

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