Abstract: Based on the land use data of the Loess Plateau in 2005, 2010 and 2015, this paper uses GIS and CA-Markov model to analyze the dynamic change characteristics of land use, and at the same time simulates and predicts the land use pattern in 2025 based on the CA-Markov model. The results show that from 2005 to 2015, cultivated land, grassland, and unused land in the Loess Plateau have decreased, and woodland, water area, and construction land have increased; the area of cultivated land transferred to other types of land is the largest, and the area of other types of land transferred to construction land is the largest. CA-Markov model prediction results show that the land-use change trend of the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2025 is roughly the same as that of 2005 to 2015. The construction land and water area show an expansion trend, and the unused land, arable land, and grassland show a decreasing trend. The Loess Plateau is in an ecologically fragile area. Expansion of construction land and unreasonable land development and utilization will further reduce the quality of the ecological environment of the Loess Plateau. Therefore, construction land development boundaries should be set in future land development and utilization to improve the rationality of land use.

Key words: land use, Loess Plateau, CA-Markov model