Abstract: Large-scale river engineering construction is of great significance to the economic and social development of the basin, but based on it’s engineering characteristics, it will have a certain impact on land use/cover change （LUCC） in the areas along the line. The study taked the second phase of the Huai River into the Sea as an example, and used the Markov-Flus model to predict the changes in regional LUCC in the three scenarios of natural development under the influence of river projects or non-river projects in the basin from 2018 to 2030, as well as cultivated land protection and guaranteed development under project construction. Provide reference for efficient land use and coordinated development of space in the basin. The results show that from 2010 to 2018, the main trend of LUCC changes in the study area was the conversion of cultivated land to construction land. Compared with the natural development scenario, the amount of arable land, grassland and woodland under the guaranteed development scenario was reduced by 88.70, 1.73 and 2.48 km², respectively, and the water area and construction land increased by 79.51 and 13.40 km², respectively. Under the arable land protection scenario, arable land and construction land decreased by 37.55 and 42.11 km², and grassland, woodland, and water area increased by 0.12, 0.03 and 79.51 km², respectively. Comparing the results of multi-scenario simulation showed that large-scale river engineering construction occupied a large amount of land along the line, Which was mainly manifested in the decrease in the supply of construction land and the intensified loss of cultivated land, which will cause structural contradictions in regional land use in the short term. However, it’s construction can improve agricultural production factors and enhance the location conditions of regional economic development, which was of great significance to the high-quality and sustainable development of regional socio-economics.

Key words: large-scale river engineering, LUCC, Markov-Flus model, scenario simulation, The Watershed of the Huai River into the Sea