HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2022, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (3): 36-41.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.03.008

• Resource & Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on quantitative pre-assessment of crop rainstorm disaster loss

ZHAO Tie-song, ZHANG An-ningzhi, HU Hui-fang   

  1. Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Shijiazhuang 050021,China
  • Received:2020-05-29 Online:2022-02-10 Published:2022-03-11

Abstract: In this paper, the rainfall data, crop rainstorm and flood disaster data and socio-economic data of Hebei province from 1983 to 2018 were used. Firstly, correlation analysis, principal component analysis and other methods were used to establish the evaluation model of rainstorm disaster intensity in different months, determine the standard of intensity classification, and build a case database of crop rainstorm loss in Hebei province. Secondly, using the historical scenario analogy method, a quantitative prediction model was constructed by using a case database to realize the quantitative loss prediction of the impact of heavy rain and flood disasters on crops in Hebei province. The results showed that the disaster of crops was mainly related to the maximum precipitation in 1 hour, the accumulated precipitation and the maximum daily precipitation. The disaster intensity index of rainstorm can better evaluate the risk of crop loss caused by a certain rainstorm process, the historical scenario analogy method for crop rainstorm and flood loss assessment accuracy rate was more than 60%, and the method was simple and fast, which can be applied to the loss assessment business.

Key words: storm and flood disasters, crops, storm intensity, analogy

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