Abstract: The facility tomato industry is a major advantage industry in Shandong province， which helps the farmers to increase their income and get rid of poverty. Improving the efficiency of tomato production technology is of great practical significance to improve the quality of tomato， increase the income of vegetable farmers and reduce the poverty-stricken population. The technical efficiency of facility tomato in Shandong province was calculated by using the method of stochastic frontier model， with an average of 0.872 6. The ARMA（1，1） model was used to predict the change trend of technical efficiency of facility tomato， and the predicted results showed that the technical efficiency of protected tomato showed an increasing trend， indicating that the technical efficiency of facility tomato in Shandong province had a growth potential， but the growth potential of technical efficiency was weakened.

Key words: facility tomato, technical efficiency, autoregressive moving average model（ARMA）, Shandong province