Prediction of potential distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae in Sichuan province under RCP2.6

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.18.012

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the current situation and RCP2.6 scenario, MaxEnt model was selected to predict the potential distribution area of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae in Sichuan province, and the change of the suitable area in the 1930s, 1950s, 1970s and 1980s was analyzed. The results showed that AUC of training data and test data of all models were 0.915~0.979 and 0.924~0.970, respectively, which indicated a better forecast. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable area for Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae was in Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou and Yaan, whereas the moderately suitable area was in 21 cities of Sichuan. Under RCP 2.6 scenario, the areas of the highly and lowly suitable areas increased significantly compared with the current scenario, while the areas of the moderately suitable areas decreased significantly. The geometric center location and migration rule of different suitable areas were different, but they all moved northward in general.

Key words: Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae, MaxEnt model, climate change, climatic suitability

CLC Number:

S663.4

LU Xing-li, LUO Wei, LI Qing, LIN Shan, WANG Ru-lin, YOU Chao, GUO Xiang, WANG Ming-tian. Prediction of potential distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae in Sichuan province under RCP2.6[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2019, 58(18): 49-54.

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