湖北农业科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (3): 157-162.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.03.024

• 农业生产效率 • 上一篇    下一篇

旱灾对粮食生产影响的组态路径研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析

曹娇娇   

  1. 河海大学公共管理学院,南京 211100
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-13 出版日期:2024-03-25 发布日期:2024-04-07
  • 作者简介:曹娇娇(1999-),女,甘肃平凉人,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为农村环境治理,(电话)18602517963(电子信箱)caojiaojiao1123@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“‘项目进村’中形式化运作的表征、形成机理与纠治策略”(KYCX22_0696)

Research on the configuration path of drought impact on grain production: Qualitative comparative analysis based on fuzzy sets

CAO Jiao-jiao   

  1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
  • Received:2023-11-13 Online:2024-03-25 Published:2024-04-07

摘要: 基于组态视角以中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,选取1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年作为典型案例,探究旱灾与各要素影响粮食生产的组态路径。研究发现,粮食生产受多种因素的影响,且旱灾无法独立影响粮食产量。在高粮食生产中产生4条路径组态,分别为资源投入型、政府支持型、政府支持+资源投入型以及政府支持+技术投入型。在低粮食生产中产生6条路径组态,概括为因旱减产+政府缺位+资源不足型、因旱减产+资源不足型、因旱减产+资源不足+技术不足型3种类型。粮食生产的影响因素不仅具有非对称性,还具有显著的时空差异性。

关键词: 旱灾, 粮食生产, 组态路径, fsQCA

Abstract: Based on the perspective of configuration, this paper took 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China as research objects, and chose 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 as typical cases to explore the configuration path of drought and various factors affecting food production. The results showed that,food production was affected by many factors, and drought could not independently affect food production. There were four path configurations in high grain production, which were resource input type, government support type, government support + resource input type and government support + technology input type. There were six path configurations in low grain production, which could be summarized into three types, such as reduction due to drought + absence of government + lack of resources, reduction due to drought + lack of resources, reduction due to drought + lack of resources + lack of technology. The influencing factors of grain production were not only asymmetrical, but also had significant temporal and spatial differences.

Key words: drought, food production, configuration path, fsQCA

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