基于PLUS模型的鄂西山区耕地景观格局多情景模拟

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.11.010

湖北农业科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (11): 51-59.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.11.010

基于PLUS模型的鄂西山区耕地景观格局多情景模拟

彭洪兵¹, 宋健², 尹雯³, 钱招东⁴, 滕欣^1,5, 孟雪¹

1.自然资源部国家海洋技术中心,天津 300112;
2.湖北省地质局第二地质大队,湖北恩施 445000;
3.湖北交投鄂西生态新镇投资有限公司,湖北恩施 445000;
4.自然资源部不动产登记中心,北京 100034;
5.自然资源部海洋空间资源管理技术重点实验室,杭州 310012

收稿日期:2023-05-08 出版日期:2023-11-25 发布日期:2023-12-25
作者简介:彭洪兵（1988-）,男,湖北宜昌人,助理研究员,硕士,主要从事海洋资源评估与管理、海洋产业规划与战略研究,（电子信箱）545253441@qq.com。
基金资助:
自然资源部业务化项目（Y2170HG26; C3230ZC01）; 自然资源部海洋空间资源管理技术重点实验室重点课题（KF-2022-104）

Multi scenario simulation of cultivated land landscape pattern in Western Hubei mountainous area based on PLUS model

PENG Hong-bing¹, SONG Jian², YIN Wen³, QIAN Zhao-dong⁴, TENG Xin^1,5, MENG Xue¹

1. National Ocean Technology Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Tianjin 300112, China;
2. The Second Geological Brigade, Hubei Geological Bureau, Enshi 445000, Hubei, China;
3. Hubei Trading Western Hubei Ecological New Town Investment Co., Ltd., Enshi 445000, Hubei, China;
4. Real Estate Registration Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100034, China;
5. Key Laboratory of Marine Space Resources Management Technology, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou 310012, China

Received:2023-05-08 Online:2023-11-25 Published:2023-12-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以鄂西山区19个县（市、区）为研究对象,利用PLUS模型模拟耕地景观在自然条件约束情景和自然与社会经济条件双重约束情景下的时空演化规律,明确耕地景观格局的重要影响因素。结果表明,未来鄂西地区耕地数量仍表现为下降趋势。影响耕地变化的因素主要为高程、植被覆盖、水文条件。斑块形态的空间分布格局受地形影响显著,表现为北优南劣的格局;耕地斑块形态随时间变化呈明显优化发展的趋势。在斑块格局上,鄂西地区耕地斑块整体空间聚集性差、连通性低、破碎化程度高,耕地斑块格局存在持续恶化的风险。多情景模拟的差异表明,耕地斑块的规则化发展会受到社会经济活动因素的限制,而仅在自然条件驱动下,耕地景观更易向复杂化、破碎化方向发展。

关键词: 耕地, 景观格局, PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 鄂西山区

Abstract: Taking 19 counties （cities, districts） in Western Hubei as the research object, the PLUS model was used to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution law of cultivated land landscape under the constraints of natural conditions and the dual constraints of natural and socio-economic conditions, and clarify the important influencing factors of cultivated land landscape pattern. The results showed that the number of cultivated land in Western Hubei would still show a downward trend in the future. The main factors affecting cultivated land change were elevation, vegetation cover and hydrological conditions. The spatial distribution pattern of patch shape was significantly affected by topography, which was characterized by superior in the north and inferior in the south; in terms of time change, the cultivated land patch shape showed an obvious trend of optimization and development. In terms of patch pattern, the overall spatial aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation of the cultivated land patch in Western Hubei were poor, and there was a risk of continuous deterioration of cultivated land patch pattern. The difference of multi scenario simulation showed that the regular development of the cultivated land patch would be limited by social and economic activities, and only driven by natural conditions, the cultivated land landscape was easier to develop in the direction of complexity and fragmentation.

Key words: cultivated land, landscape pattern, PLUS model, multi scenario simulation, Western Hubei mountainous area

中图分类号:

F301.21

彭洪兵, 宋健, 尹雯, 钱招东, 滕欣, 孟雪. 基于PLUS模型的鄂西山区耕地景观格局多情景模拟[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2023, 62(11): 51-59.

PENG Hong-bing, SONG Jian, YIN Wen, QIAN Zhao-dong, TENG Xin, MENG Xue. Multi scenario simulation of cultivated land landscape pattern in Western Hubei mountainous area based on PLUS model[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(11): 51-59.

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基于PLUS模型的鄂西山区耕地景观格局多情景模拟

Multi scenario simulation of cultivated land landscape pattern in Western Hubei mountainous area based on PLUS model

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