关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 土地利用变化, 生态贡献率, MCE-CA-Markov, 枝江市

Abstract: Taking Zhijiang City as the research area and the remote sensing image data of Zhijiang City in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was collected. ENVI and ArcGIS software, with the help of land use transfer matrix methods, land use dynamic index, equivalent factor method of ecosystem service value and the contribution rate of the ecosystem service value, were used to analyse the temporal and spatial evolution of land use and the characteristics of the temporal and spatial differentiation of the ecosystem service value. The MCE-CA-Markov model was used to predict the change trends of the land use and ecosystem service value （ESV） of Zhijiang City under three scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ①The land use in Zhijiang City significantly changed from 2000 to 2020, and the area of the construction land expanded rapidly, mainly due to the transfer of cultivated land. The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use was relatively high, and the construction land and wetlands in a single dynamic degree were as high as roughly 10%/a. ②The hydrological adjustment was the highest amongst the ecological contribution rate of the single ecological service. The ecological contribution rate of the water area was the largest amongst the various types of the land use, which had the most significant impact on ESV changes. ③The spatial differentiation of ESV was significant. The ESV in the south of the Yangtze River was higher than that in the north. Overall, the ecosystem service value of Zhijiang City showed a decreasing trend during the whole study period. ④A loss of ESV in 2030 would transpire under natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios, and the land loss from the cultivated land to the construction land was the key to reduce ESV. Under the ecological protection scenario, ESV increased by 7% compared with that in 2020, thus curbing the decreasing trend effectively.

Key words: ecosystem service value, land use change, ecological contribution rate, MCE-CA-Markov, Zhijiang City