关键词: 农业经济增长, 碳排放强度, 杜宾模型, 空间溢出效应

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces（cities, autonomous regions） in China from 2007 to 2020, the impact of agricultural economic growth was studied on agricultural carbon emission intensity and the spatial spillover effect using a spatial econometric model. The results showed that the economic growth indicators represented by agricultural carbon emission intensity and per capita agricultural GDP showed a spatial aggregation pattern dominated by H-H agglomeration and L-L agglomeration; the agricultural machinery input was positively correlated with the agricultural carbon emission intensity index. The higher the proportion of agricultural planting, the higher the agricultural carbon emission intensity; economic growth and technological progress were conducive to reducing the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in the region. Therefore, it was necessary to coordinate regional development, promote regional coordinated development, increase investment in agricultural science and technology, improve the technical level of agricultural environmental pollution prevention, use space interaction, and establish incentive mechanisms to promote agricultural green production.

Key words: agricultural economic growth, carbon emission intensity, Durbin model, spatial spillover effects