基于逐日SPEI的陇东黄土高原干旱特征分析

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.039

湖北农业科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (3): 249-256.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.039

• 气象·气候 • 上一篇

基于逐日SPEI的陇东黄土高原干旱特征分析

张天峰¹, 姜惠峰¹, 张可心¹, 车向军¹, 张雪姣², 何树洲¹

1.庆阳市气象局,甘肃庆阳 745000;
2.合水县气象局,甘肃合水 745400

收稿日期:2021-12-06 发布日期:2023-04-20
作者简介:张天峰（1969-）,男,甘肃庆阳人,高级工程师,本科,主要从事气候分析及应用气象研究,（电话）0934-5926889（电子信箱）ztf_qy@139.com。
基金资助:
甘肃省科技计划项目（20JR5RM626; 22JR5RM1045）; 庆阳市科技重大专项计划项目（QY-STK-2022A-071）

Analysis of the drought characteristics of Longdong Loess Plateau based on the daily SPEI

ZHANG Tian-feng¹, JIANG Hui-feng¹, ZHANG Ke-xin¹, CHE Xiang-jun¹, ZHANG Xue-jiao², HE Shu-zhou¹

1. Qingyang Meteorological Bureau, Qingyang 745000, Gansu,China;
2. Heshui County Meteorological Bureau, Heshui 745400, Gansu,China

Received:2021-12-06 Published:2023-04-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用陇东地区8个国家级气象站1969—2020年逐日气象资料,采用计算逐日SPEI干旱指数,统计干旱频率和干旱烈度,基于Copula函数等方法,分析了陇东黄土高原干旱气候特征。结果表明,陇东地区出现干旱次数较多的是正宁、宁县、庆城;特旱较多的是华池、镇原,重旱较多的是合水、宁县,中旱较多的是环县、庆城,轻旱较多的是庆城和正宁。极端干旱过程旱段期间各站降水量差异较大,表明干旱空间分布和时间变化有局地性特征。各站SPEI干旱指数的年月际变化基本为同位相波动特征,即大部分年份都是同时干旱或湿润,但是干旱和湿润的程度有一定时空差异。各站各年干旱出现次数差异较大,20世纪90年代和2004—2013年干旱多发。Copula模拟结果表明,正宁站的BB1模型拟合效果最好,Fischer-Hinzmann和Roch-Alegre模型次之,其次为镇原站Marshal-Olkin和庆城站的t模型,西峰站和合水站的模拟效果最差。分析发现,SPEI干旱指数使得干旱在空间和时间上具有可比性,但也有其局限性,难以反映不同气候背景条件下的干旱差异,区域内气候湿润度最大地区与最小地区的干旱指数无明显差异,导致对易发生干旱地区总体上有偏轻的判断。

关键词: SPEI, 干旱指数, Copula函数, 干旱特征

Abstract: According to daily meteorological data from 8 national meteorological stations in Longdong region from 1969 to 2020, the drought climate characteristics of the Longdong Loess Plateau based on the Copula function were analyzed by using daily SPEI drought index, drought frequency and drought intensity. The results showed that Longdong region appeared more droughts in Zhengning, Ningxian and Qingcheng, extreme droughts in Huachi and Zhenyuan, severe droughts in Heshui and Ningxian, moderate droughts in Huanxian and Qingcheng, and light droughts in Qingcheng and Zhengning. During the extreme drought process, the precipitation at each station varied greatly in the drought period, indicating local characteristics existed in spatial distribution and temporal changes of drought. The inter-annual and inter-month variations of the SPEI drought index at each station showed the same phase fluctuation feature. Specifically, drought or humidity occurred simultaneously in most years, but there was a temporal and spatial difference in the degree of drought and humidity. During the 1990s and 2004—2013, droughts frequently occurred, and the number of drought occurrences varied greatly among stations. The Copula simulation results indicated that, the BB1 model at Zhengning Station provided a better fitting effect than Fischer-Hinzmann and Roch-Alegre model, followed by Marshal-Olkin at Zhenyuan Station, and t model at Qingcheng Station. However, the simulation model at Xifeng Station and Heshui Station showed the worst fitting effects. The analysis also found that SPEI drought index made the drought comparable in space and time, but it had limitations in reflecting the difference in drought under different climatic background conditions. There was no significant difference in the drought index between the regions with the largest and smallest climatic humidities in the region, thus resulting in a generally lighter judgment on the drought-prone areas.

Key words: SPEI, drought index, Copula function, drought characteristics

中图分类号:

P426.616

张天峰, 姜惠峰, 张可心, 车向军, 张雪姣, 何树洲. 基于逐日SPEI的陇东黄土高原干旱特征分析[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2023, 62(3): 249-256.

ZHANG Tian-feng, JIANG Hui-feng, ZHANG Ke-xin, CHE Xiang-jun, ZHANG Xue-jiao, HE Shu-zhou. Analysis of the drought characteristics of Longdong Loess Plateau based on the daily SPEI[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(3): 249-256.

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基于逐日SPEI的陇东黄土高原干旱特征分析

Analysis of the drought characteristics of Longdong Loess Plateau based on the daily SPEI

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