基于气候适宜度的湖北省棉花相对气象产量丰歉年型探讨

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.036

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1981—2020年湖北省棉花种植区共50个县（市、区）气象资料,选取光照、气温、有效降水量3个气候影响因子计算棉花各生育期气候适宜度,并采用熵权法对各生育期气候适宜度进行加权得到湖北省全生育期综合气候适宜度,构建了基于综合气候适宜度的棉花相对气象产量丰歉年型预报模型。结果表明,1981年以来湖北省棉花气候适宜度呈“降-升-降”波动趋势,棉花花铃期相对其他生育期更适宜棉花生长;播种期、蕾期变异系数较大,分别为21.9%和20.9%;所建立的相对气象产量预报模型历史回代完全一致及较接近的占比达到94.7%,2019年、2020年试报结果与实际丰歉年型完全一致,拟合结果较好,能够基本满足业务服务需要。

关键词: 气候适宜度, 相对气象产量, 丰歉年型, 棉花, 有效降水量, 熵权法

Abstract: The climate suitability of cotton in each growth period was calculated by selecting three climate influencing factors（light, air temperature and effective precipitation） based on meteorological data of 50 counties （cities and districts） in cotton planting areas of Hubei Province from 1981 to 2020. The entropy weight method was used to weight the climate suitability of each growth period to obtain the comprehensive climate suitability of the whole growth period in Hubei Province, and the prediction model of cotton relative meteorological yield in abundant and lean years based on the comprehensive climate suitability was constructed. The results showed that, since 1981, the climate suitability of cotton in Hubei Province had shown a fluctuating trend of “down-up-down”. Compared with other growth periods, the flowering and bolling stage of cotton was suitable for cotton growth. The variation coefficient of the sowing and bud stages was large, which was 21.9% and 20.9%, respectively. The proportion of historical fitting accuracy by applying the prediction model of cotton relative meteorological yield in abundant and lean years was 94.7%. The cotton relative meteorological yield extrapolation forecast from 2019 to 2020 was completely consistent with the fact, which showed that the fitting result was good and could basically meet the needs of business services.

Key words: climatic suitability, relative meteorological yield, abundant year and lean year, cotton, effective precipitation, entropy weight method

中图分类号:

S561

汤阳, 秦鹏程, 刘志雄, 刘凯文, 肖玮钰. 基于气候适宜度的湖北省棉花相对气象产量丰歉年型探讨[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2023, 62(3): 230-234.

TANG Yang, QIN Peng-cheng, LIU Zhi-xiong, LIU Kai-wen, XIAO Wei-yu. Discussion on abundant year and lean year for relative meteorological yield of cotton in Hubei Province based on climatic suitability[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(3): 230-234.

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