关键词: 中国农产品贸易, 空间计量模型, 空间集聚效应

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019, the spatial autocorrelation test method and spatial econometric model were used to empirically analyze the spatial agglomeration effect and influencing factors of agricultural trade in China. The results showed that the spatial agglomeration effect existed in Chinese agricultural trade between the provinces, and the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually enhanced in recent years, and there would be spatial spillover effects for provinces with high-high aggregation; the level of mechanization, rural residents' income, the density of road network had a significant positive relationship with agricultural products trade in China, while the geographical location of each province had a significant negative relationship with it; the significant positive correlation between cattle stocks and agricultural trade reflected that the potential threat of agricultural carbon emissions to trade had not been taken seriously. In view of the above problems, some suggestions were put forward to strengthen inter-provincial and regional linkage, strengthen innovation, improve productivity according to local conditions, and improve the development of low-carbon livestock industry.

Key words: agricultural products trade in China, spatial econometric model, spatial agglomeration effect