关键词: 梨树花期, 预报模型, 旅游气象指数, 迁西县

Abstract: Based on the observation data of the flowering period of pear trees and relevant meteorological data during 2008—2021, the time correlation coefficient between the first flowering period of pear trees and meteorological factors was calculated,the linear prediction model of Qianxi pear flowering period was established by using linear prediction and stepwise regression methods,and the meteorological index of pear flower ornamental tourism in Qianxi County was determined. The results showed that, the initial flowering period of pear trees was closely related to the effective accumulated temperature, air temperature and ground temperature,it was negatively correlated with accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ from December to March of the following year, mean minimum temperature in March and mean ground temperature in March,and the stepwise regression prediction model established after optimizing the prediction factors was the best. Taking into account the flowering period of pear trees, meteorological conditions, travel convenience, human comfort and other factors, the meteorological index for pear blossom ornamental tourism in Qianxi County was determined, which could provide important guidance for landscape management, tourism development and public flower appreciation.

Key words: flowering of pear trees, forecasting model, tourist meteorological index, Qianxi County