新冠疫情背景下贵阳农产品冷链物流需求预测分析

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.18.034

湖北农业科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (18): 191-195.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.18.034

新冠疫情背景下贵阳农产品冷链物流需求预测分析

雷蕾, 吴洁, 李淑敏

成都信息工程大学物流学院,成都 610103

收稿日期:2021-11-25 出版日期:2022-09-25 发布日期:2022-10-21
通讯作者: 李淑敏。
作者简介:雷蕾（1994-）,男,四川资阳人,硕士研究生, 研究方向为项目管理、农村电商,（电话）13183819606（电子信箱）leilei20210627@163.com。
基金资助:
2021本科教育教学研究与改革项目（JYJG2021003）

Forecast and analysis of demanel for cold chain logistics of Guiyang's agricultural products under the background of COVID-19

LEI Lei, WU Jie, LI Shu-min

School of Logistics, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610103, China

Received:2021-11-25 Online:2022-09-25 Published:2022-10-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对农产品冷链物流需求进行预测,实现农产品供求平衡,缓解物流系统供应链压力具有重要意义。选取贵阳市2019—2021年农产品相关数据,利用灰色GM（1,1）模型对贵阳市未来六年农产品冷链物流需求量进行预测。结果表明,新冠疫情下,贵阳市农产品冷链物流需求量整体呈上升趋势,农产品冷链物流供给能力须进一步加强。基于弹性供应链视角,提出政府应建立冷链物流产业供应链风险管理和沟通机制及农产品冷链物流企业的运营资源保障体系;企业应加大对智能物流科技投入,加强农产品冷链物流数字科技建设及农产品冷链物流应急供应链建设。

关键词: 农产品冷链物流, 灰色GM（1, 1）预测模型, 需求预测分析

Abstract: The forecast of the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products was of great significance to achieve a balance between supply and demand of agricultural products and alleviate the pressure on the supply chain of the logistics system. The relevant data of agricultural products in Guiyang city from 2019 to 2021 were selected, and the grey GM（1,1） model was used to predict the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Guiyang City in the next six years. The results showed that under the new crown epidemic, the overall demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Guiyang was on the rise, and the supply capacity of cold chain logistics of agricultural products must be further strengthened. Based on the perspective of flexible supply chain, it was proposed that the government should establish a supply chain risk management and communication mechanism for the cold chain logistics industry and an operating resource guarantee system for cold chain logistics enterprises of agricultural products. Enterprises should increase investment in intelligent logistics technology, strengthen the construction of digital technology for cold chain logistics of agricultural products and the construction of emergency supply chain for cold chain logistics of agricultural products.

Key words: cold chain logistics of agricultural products, grey GM（1, 1） forecast model, demand forecast analysis

中图分类号:

F304.3

雷蕾, 吴洁, 李淑敏. 新冠疫情背景下贵阳农产品冷链物流需求预测分析[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2022, 61(18): 191-195.

LEI Lei, WU Jie, LI Shu-min. Forecast and analysis of demanel for cold chain logistics of Guiyang's agricultural products under the background of COVID-19[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2022, 61(18): 191-195.

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新冠疫情背景下贵阳农产品冷链物流需求预测分析

Forecast and analysis of demanel for cold chain logistics of Guiyang's agricultural products under the background of COVID-19

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