关键词: 自然灾害, 综合承灾能力, 熵权法, 时空变化, 陕西省

Abstract: An evaluation index system for the comprehensive disaster bearing capacity of natural disasters in Shaanxi Province was constructed, the entropy weight method comprehensive evaluation model was used to calculate and analyze the disaster bearing capacity, and time series and ArcGIS spatial mapping methods were used to analyze its temporal and spatial characteristics. The results showed that, from 2000 to 2019, the overall natural disaster bearing capacity in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend, the rate of change had gradually stabilized, and regional differences had gradually narrowed. The ability to cope with risk has been greatly improved. During the study period, the characteristics of the disaster-resistance and disaster-prevention capabilities of Shaanxi Province were basically consistent; the dynamic evolution process of the disaster-relief capabilities was more complex and fluctuated, and the overall situation of the resilience increased steadily, but the improvement was lower than other sub-capabilities. The development trend of the disaster bearing capacity of each district and sub-item was basically the same as that of Shaanxi Province. The spatial pattern of population change in Shaanxi Province had a certain degree of coupling with the spatial change of comprehensive disaster bearing capacity. The improvement and development of disaster bearing capacity in Shaanxi Province basically adapted to the new spatial distribution pattern of exposure to natural disasters related to population changes during the study period.

Key words: natural disasters, comprehensive disaster bearing capacity, entropy method, temporal and spatial changes, Shaanxi Province