关键词: 城镇用地扩展, 共享社会经济路径, 异速生长模型, Dinamica EGO模型

Abstract: As a dense area of human activities, the expansion of urban land will have an important impact on other land use types and the surrounding environment. The allometric growth model was used to improve the total amount prediction module of Dinamica EGO model. On this basis, the expansion prediction of urban land in China under the multi-scenario simulation was carried out. The results show that compared with 2000—2015, the expansion area of urban land in China under the five scenarios from 2015 to 2030 has decreased by 58.07%~64.17%, indicating that China will surpass the peak of urbanization speed. The expansion rate of urban land in the central and western regions and medium-sized cities will accelerate, indicating that the gap of urban development between different regions and cities of different sizes will be narrowed, and the effect of regional and urban coordinated development strategy will be remarkable. Under the development scenario dominated by fossil fuels, the difference of urban expansion area per city in different regions and cities of different sizes is larger than that in other scenarios, indicating that this scenario is not conducive to climate warming mitigation, but also to regional coordinated development.

Key words: urban land expansion, shared socioeconomic pathways, allometric growth, Dinamica EGO model