关键词: 雷电, PSR模型, 定量化, 雷电风险, 农村

Abstract: In this study, six evaluation indexes including lightning density, lightning current intensity, GDP, population density, economic loss and personal injury and death were selected to build the quantitative model of PSR lightning risk. The Kriging interpolation method, entropy method and principal component analysis method were used to conduct statistical analysis on regional pressure, regional state and regional response respectively, and the quantitative results of lightning disaster risk in Guangdong province were obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas were located in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Foshan, Huizhou and Zhuhai, mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region, and the risk gradually decreases from south to north. There was a sub-high risk area in eastern Guangdong, which was located in the northwestern part of Shantou, the central and eastern part of Jieyang and most parts of southwestern Chaozhou. Western Guangdong risk sub-high areas were mainly located in Maoming and northern Zhanjiang. Through the comparative analysis of 1 075 lightning casualties in Guangdong province, it is found that the lightning risk area was consistent with the actual lightning disaster, and the quadratic regression correlation coefficient between the two was 0.882 0. The visual display of the lightning disaster risk level can provide technical support for the formulation of lightning safety protection strategies in areas with incomplete lightning safety data, such as remote rural areas, and further improve the lightning protection and disaster reduction work in various places, especially in rural areas.

Key words: lightning, PSR model, quantification, lightning risk, rural area