关键词: 气候生产潜力, Thornthwaite Memorial模型, 时空特征, 三江源

Abstract: Using the temperature and precipitation data of 13 weather stations in The Sanjiangyuan （Yellow River, Yangtze River and Lancang River） region from 1961 to 2019, the Miami model and Thornthwaite Memorial model were used to calculate the temperature production potential and precipitation production potential in the sanjiangyuan region, and the relationship between climate production potential and average temperature and precipitation was analyzed. Linear trend analysis, M-K （Mann-Kendall） mutation test and other methods were used to analyze the variation trend, significance, climate mutation and other characteristics of meteorological elements. The inverse distance weight interpolation （IDW） method in ArcGIS was used to analyze the spatial characteristics of climate production potential in sanjiangyuan area, and the sensitivity of climate production potential to temperature and precipitation was discussed. The results showed that the average temperature and precipitation in sanjiangyuan area had been increasing in the past 59 years. The production potential of temperature, precipitation and climate shows an increasing trend in general. The high （low） temperature and the high （low） precipitation directly affected the high （low） production potential. The abrupt change years of temperature, precipitation and climate production potential were 1998, 1998 and 2002. The spatial distribution of climate production potential was higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, and gradually decreases from the east to the west. There was a positive correlation between the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in The Sanjiangyuan area and the climatic production potential, both of which were the main factors affecting the climatic production potential in the area.

Key words: climate production potential, Thornthwaite Memorial model, spatio-temporal characteristics, Sanjiangyuan region