关键词: 农业, 碳排放, LMDI, Mann-Kendall, 湖北省

Abstract: Agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei province from 1993 to 2017 using 6 types of carbon sources was calculated, including fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural diesel, agricultural planting area, and agricultural irrigation area. By analysing of time-series characteristics and LMDI addition and decomposition, the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions were studied in Hubei province. The results showed that Hubei's agricultural carbon emissions generally increased first and then declined between 1993 and 2017, reaching its peak in 2012, but with a significant upward trend, and agricultural carbon emissions increased with a significant downward trend. The carbon emissions and increments per unit of GDP had a significant downward trend, the carbon emissions per unit of arable land had a significant upward trend, and the carbon emissions per unit of arable land had a significant downward trend; From the decomposition results of the influencing factors, agricultural production efficiency, industrial structure, rural population and agricultural industrial structure were the main influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Hubei province, and their contributions decrease in turn, while the level of economic development and urbanization were the main influencing factors leading to the increase of agricultural carbon emission in Hubei province.

Key words: agriculture, carbon emissions, LMDI, Mann-Kendall, Hubei province