关键词: 城镇化, 产业结构, 农业经济增长, VAR, 协整检验

Abstract: Using the ratio of urban population to total population, the ratio of added value of tertiary industry to secondary industry and total agricultural output value from 2000 to 2018 as sample data, based on VAR model and cointegration test, this research studied the interaction among urbanization, industrial structure and agricultural economic growth. The results showed that urbanization and industrial structure have significant impact on agricultural economic growth. The impact of urbanization on agricultural economic growth was positive, and the impact of industrial structure on agricultural economic growth was negative. The influence of urbanization and industrial structure on agricultural economic growth should be considered comprehensively. With the passage of time, the contribution rate of urbanization to the variance of agricultural economic growth increased significantly; the contribution rate of industrial structure to the variance of agricultural economic growth increased slightly; the proportion of variance fluctuation caused by the factors of agricultural economic growth decreased significantly. We need to focused on the impact of urbanization on agricultural economic growth. Urbanization, industrial structure and agricultural economic growth had a stable long-term equilibrium relationship. In the long run, the government should ensure the coordinated development of urbanization, industrial structure and agricultural economic growth.

Key words: urbanization, industrial structure, agricultural economic growth, VAR, cointegration test