中国生猪养殖的不平衡性及其时空演变

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.18.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生猪养殖是农业生产的重要组成部分,选取2004—2018年中国31个省份（港澳台除外）的面板数据,定量测度了中国生猪养殖的不平衡性及其时空演变。结果表明,①中国生猪养殖呈现明显的区域不平衡性,主要生猪养殖省份集中在中部地区、西南地区和华南地区。②全国生猪养殖存在显著的空间正相关,且生猪养殖的集聚效应越来越明显。③明星类省份主要有河南、广东、广西、四川和云南,瘦狗类省份主要有北京、天津、上海和西藏。④全国生猪养殖的不平衡性发生了由缩小到扩大的演变,潜力区、重点区和适度区的生猪养殖相对较为均衡,而约束区生猪养殖的不平衡性较大且呈扩大化趋势,西部地区和东部地区生猪养殖的不平衡性较为接近且都高于中部地区。⑤生猪养殖重心的移动主要经历了东北偏移和西北偏移,“南猪北养”趋势明显,而人口流动“孔雀东南飞”现象较为突出。⑥2004—2017年,生猪养殖重心与人口重心的空间距离呈现先增后减的变动趋势,表明生猪养殖的供需矛盾发生了由加剧到缓解的演变。

关键词: 生猪养殖, 不平衡性, 时空演变, 泰尔指数, 重心模型

Abstract: Pig breeding was an important part of agricultural production. The panel data of 31 provinces from 2004 to 2018 were selected to measure quantitatively the imbalance degree and spatial-temporal evolution of pig breeding in China. The results showed that there was obvious regional imbalance in pig breeding in China, and the main pig breeding provinces were concentrated in the central region, southwestern region, and southern region. There was a significant positive spatial correlation in pig breeding in China, and the agglomeration effect of pig breeding was more and more obvious. Star provinces mainly included Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan and Yunnan, while skinny dog provinces mainly included Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Tibet. The imbalance degree of pig breeding in the whole country has changed from shrinking first to expanding. The pig breeding in potential area, key area and moderate area was relatively balanced, while the imbalance degree of pig breeding in restricted area was relatively large and expanding. The imbalance degree of pig breeding in the West and East was relatively close and higher than that in the central area. During the research period, the movement of pig breeding center mainly experienced northeast and northwest migration, and the trend of “South pig breeding in North” was obvious, while the phenomenon of “Peacock flying Southeast” was more prominent. From 2004 to 2017, the spatial distance between the focus of pig breeding and the focus of population showed a trend of first increase and then decrease, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand of pig breeding had evolved from intensification to easing.

Key words: pig breeding, imbalance, spatial-temporal evolution, Theil index, barycenter model

中图分类号:

F326.3

叶文显. 中国生猪养殖的不平衡性及其时空演变[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2020, 59(18): 85-95.

YE Wen-xian. The imbalance and spatial-temporal evolution of pig breeding in China[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2020, 59(18): 85-95.

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