1988—2017年洪泽湖自然湖面变化特征及其影响因素

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.18.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像作为数据源,基于GIS和RS技术,利用年变化率和湖泊变化强度指数等方法定量分析1988—2017年洪泽湖湖面变化趋势及特征,通过收集1988—2018年洪泽湖地区的气象数据以及人工围养数据,结合当地实际深入研究湖面变化主要原因。①1988—2017年,洪泽湖自然湖面整体上呈萎缩-平稳-萎缩的态势,近30年共减少125.81 km²,相对萎缩速率为9.88%,强度变化指数（Q）为-0.34。相比而言,第三阶段（2009—2017年）减少较为显著,第一阶段（1988—2000年）次之,第二阶段（2000—2009年）较稳定,其Q分别为-0.61、-0.24和-0.13;从区域位置上来看,洪泽湖面积变化主要集中在湖区西部,其次是东北部。②气温与降水量因子均与湖面变化呈线性相关,气温在1988—2018年总体升高,促使蒸发量增大;其降水量的变化也导致湖泊补给量下降。③洪泽湖沿岸的养殖业造成自然湖面萎缩,1988—2017年人工养殖面积扩大了20倍,直接导致自然湖面损失5.0%。④湖泊阶段变化中,政策变化以及洪涝灾害也是影响洪泽湖自然湖面变化的驱动因子。1988—2017年洪泽湖自然湖面基本呈逐步萎缩的态势,气象因素、政策变化以及洪涝灾害情况导致湖面的萎缩,但围网养殖是导致其变化的主要原因。

关键词: 洪泽湖, 自然面积变化, 驱动因子, 人工围养

Abstract: Using Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing image as data source, based on GIS and RS technology, using annual change rate and lake change intensity index and other methods to quantitatively analyze the change trend and characteristics of Hongze lake in 1988—2017. By collecting the meteorological data and artificial conservation data of Hongze lake in 1988—2018, combined with the local actual situation, the main causes of area change were studied in depth. ①From 1988 to 2017, the natural lake surface of Hongze lake showed a trend of shrinking-stable-shrinking. In the past 30 years, it decreased 125.81 km², the relative shrinking rate was 9.88%, and the intensity change index （Q） was -0.34. In comparison, the third stage （2009—2017） decreased significantly, followed by the first stage （1988—2000）, and the second stage （2000—2009）, which was relatively stable, with Q of -0.61, -0.24 and -0.13, respectively. In terms of regional location, the change of Hongze lake area was mainly concentrated in the west of the lake area, followed by the northeast. ②Both temperature and precipitation factors are linearly related to the change of lake level, and the overall increase of temperature in 1988—2018 promotes the increase of evaporation; The change of precipitation also leads to the decrease oflake supply. ③From 1988 to 2017, the area of artificial aquaculture expanded 20 times, which directly led to the loss of 5.0% of the natural lake. ④During the change of lake stage, policy change and flood disaster are also the driving factors that affect the change of the natural lake surface of Hongze lake. From 1988 to 2017, the natural lake surface of Hongze lake basically showed a trend of gradual shrinking. Meteorological factors, policy changes and flood and waterlogging disasters caused the lake surface to shrink, but purse seine farming was the main reason for its change.

Key words: Hongze lake, natural area change, influence factor, culture in enclosure

中图分类号:

赵玉. 1988—2017年洪泽湖自然湖面变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2020, 59(18): 48-53.

ZHAO Yu. Characteristics and influencing factors of natural lake level change of Hongze lake in 1988—2017[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2020, 59(18): 48-53.

参考文献

[1] HOU X J,FENG L,CHEN X L,et al.Dynamics of the wetland vegetation in large lakes of the Yangtze Plain in response to both fertilizer consumption and climatic changes[J].Journal of photogrammetry and remote sensing,2018,141:148-160.
[2] SHAO T T,SONG K S,DU J,et al.Retrieval of CDOM and DOC using in situ hyperspectral data: A case study for potable waters in northeast China[J]. Journal of the Indian society of remote sensing,2016,44(1):77-89.
[3] 殷立琼,江南,杨英宝.基于遥感技术的太湖近15年面积动态变化[J].湖泊科学,2005,17(2):139-142.
[4] 夏智宏,刘敏,王苗,等.1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(4):515-521.
[5] 李娜,施坤,张运林,等.基于MODIS影像的洪泽湖水生植被覆盖时空变化特征及影响因素分析[J].环境科学,2019,40(10):4487-4496.
[6] 范亚民,何华春,崔云霞,等.淮河中下游洪泽湖水域动态变化研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(12):1397-1403.
[7] 阮仁宗,夏双,陈远,等.1979~2006年洪泽湖西岸临淮镇附近湖泊变化研究[J].湿地科学,2012,10(3):344-349.
[8] 吴翼,戴蓉,徐勇峰,等.洪泽湖河湖交汇区土地利用时空动态[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2016,40(4):22-28.
[9] 王德成. 洪泽县志[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,1999.
[10] 王庆,陈吉余.洪泽湖和淮河入洪泽湖河口的形成与演化[J].湖泊科学,1999,11(3):237-244.
[11] 李炳亚,潘剑君,夏超,等.基于空间位置关系的山地湖泊水体提取方法研究[J].遥感技术与应用,2016,31(5):983-993.
[12] 上官冬辉,刘时银,丁永建,等.玉龙喀什河源区32年来冰川变化遥感监测[J].地理学报,2004,59(6):855-862.
[13] 万玮,肖鹏峰,冯学智,等.近30年来青藏高原羌塘地区东南部湖泊变化遥感分析[J].湖泊科学,2010,22(6):874-881.
[14] SU W Z,GU C L,YANG G S,et al.Measuring the impact of urban sprawl on natural landscape pattern of the Western Taihu Lake watershed, China[J].Landscape and urban planning,2009,95(1):61-67.
[15] RAJASEKHAR M,RAJU G S,RAJU R S,et al.Data on comparative studies of lineaments extraction from ASTER DEM, SRTM, and Cartosat for Jilledubanderu River basin, Anantapur district, A.P, India by using remote sensing and GIS[J].Data in brief,2018,20:1676-1682.
[16] 王媛,吴立宗,许君利,等.1964—2010年青藏高原长江源各拉丹冬地区冰川变化及其不确定性分析[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(2):255-262.
[17] 刘时银,姚晓军,郭万钦,等.基于第二次冰川编目的中国冰川现状[J].地理学报,2015,70(1):3-16.
[18] 韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951—2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.
[19] 江苏省水利厅.江苏省洪泽湖保护规划[Z].2006.
[20] 叶正伟. 洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的成灾机理分析与探讨[J].水文,2006,26(4):85-87,42.
[21] 赵一晗. 洪泽湖综合治理与保护的调查和思考[J].治淮,2018(11):61-62.