关键词: 区域综合承载力, 主成分分析, 熵值法, 耦合协调度, 障碍诊断

Abstract: Taking Jilin province as an example,the regional comprehensive carrying capacity system is divided into four subsystems, such as economy, water and soil, society and ecology. Through correlation analysis and principal component analysis, the indexes were screened and the entropy method was used to objectively assign weights to construct the evaluation system of regional comprehensive carrying capacity. The degree of coupling coordination among the four subsystems was scientifically evaluated by using the coupling coordination degree model, and the main obstacle factors restricting the regional comprehensive carrying capacity were diagnosed. The results showed that the regional comprehensive carrying capacity and the degree of coordination between subsystems are overall upward trend, and part of the coupling coordination degree and the overall carrying capacity changes show the consistency. Water and soil carrying capacity has always been an important factor restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity, the early social constraints gradually transformed into ecological factors.The occurrence of natural disasters such as flood, has different degress of impacts on each subsystem and has a huge impact on the regional comprehensive carrying capacity. This study makes a scientific evaluation of the regional comprehensive carrying capacity and makes an obstacle diagnosis, providing a scientific basis for policy formulation and efficient development of Jilin province.

Key words: regional comprehensive carrying capacity, principal component analysis, entropy method, coupling coordination degree, obstacle diagnosis