关键词: 高影响天气, 周期, 趋势, 突变, 鄂州市

Abstract: :Based on the climatic data of Ezhou city from 1959 to 2018, the evolution characteristics of six types of high-influence weather in recent 60 years, including frost days, snow days, low temperature days, high temperature days, rainy days and rainstorm days are analyzed by means of linear trend method, Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that the decreasing trend of frost days, snow days, low temperature days and rainstorm days in Ezhou city is obvious since the 10s of the 21st century, and the increasing trend of high temperature days and rainstorm days is obvious. In the past 60 years, the number of frost days and low temperature days showed a significant downward trend; The number of high temperature days showed a significant increase trend; The number of snow days, rainy days and rainstorm days showed a steady and slightly increased trend. The number of frost days is the most in January and December; The number of low temperature days and snow days is the most in January; The number of high temperature days is the most in July; The number of rainy days is more from March to May in spring, less from September to November in autumn; And the number of rainstorm days is the most in June. The number of frost days, snow days, low temperature days, high temperature days, rainy days, rainstorm days mutated in 2010, 2001, 1981, 2005, 2000 and after 2015, 1968, respectively. The number of frost days has a quasi 20 year interdecadal cycle in the whole time domain; The number of days with snow cover from 1964 to 2014 has a quasi 20 year interdecadal cycle; The number of low temperature days has a 18~22 years interdecadal cycles in the whole time domain; The number of high temperature days has a quasi-16-year interdecadal cycle and 4~6 years annual cycle in the whole time domain. The number of rainy days has a quasi-22-year interdecadal cycle and quasi-8-year annual cycle in the whole time domain. The change of high-influence weather can produce favorable and unfavorable effects on agriculture in Ezhou city.

Key words: high influence weather, cycle, trend, mutation, Ezhou city