关键词: PVAR, 农民收入结构, 耕地非粮化

Abstract: The development of urbanization, industrialization and the liberalization of the separation of powers of contracted land have accelerated the non-grain phenomenon of farmland. Using the PVAR model, the dynamic relationship between farmers' income and non-grain farmland was analyzed, and the impact of farmers' income structure on non-grain farmland was discussed. The results show that from 2002 to 2017, the change trend of non-grain area and non-grain rate of farmland is basically the same, showing different characteristics at different stages under the influence of economic development and national policies. Non-grain farmland is mainly affected by farmers' wage income. Household operating income, property income and transfer income have a significant positive effect on non-grain farmland, but the long-term contribution rate is small.

Key words: PVAR, farmers' income structure, non-grain farmland