关键词: 气象因子, 油茶（Camellia oleifera Abel.）, 鲜果含油率

Abstract: Based on the collection and processing of the oil rate data of fresh fruit from multiple Camellia oleifera Abel. sample plots in different county of Hunan province during 2009—2017 and the meteorological indices for each stage of growth and treatment of Camellia oleifera Abel. which computed by the nearby meteorological observation stations’ data during the same period, the method of principal component analysis had been used to research the impacts of the meteorological factors in different stages on Camellia oleifera Abel.’s fresh fruit oil rate and a forecasting model were constructed based on above meteorological factors. The results show that the effects of meteorological factors for fruit maturity period,oil transformation and accumulation peak period, the whole year of fruit picking and fruit enlargement peak period on oil content are more significant than other periods and the temperature indices,especially the extreme maximum temperature is the key factor which affecting oil content. The oil content forecasting model constructed base on those factors has a relative high accuracy and can be applied in operation.

Key words: meteorological factors, Camellia oleifera Abel., oil rate of fresh fruit