关键词: 寡照气象灾害, 气象指数保险, 纯费率, Weibull 分布, 连云港市

Abstract: Based on the rice yield per unit area in Lianyungang in the past 30 years and the meteorological elements in the past 30 years, using the 5-year linear sliding average, the meteorological yield was separated, the correlation between meteorological yield and various meteorological factors was tested. According to the correlation results, sunshine was selected as the agrometeorological insurance index factor, and the most sensitive period of heading, flowering and grain-filling maturity of rice were selected, at the same time, the relationship model between the yield reduction rate and the duration of low illumination was established. Then, based on the sunshine meteorological data of each district and county in Lianyungang, the Weibull distribution model was used to simulate the probability of the occurrence of the under-illumination meteorological disaster in different areas, and the yield reduction model was used to determine the pure premium rate under different disaster triggering levels. The results showed that the yield reduction rate of rice in Lianyungang was a function of three times with the number of days of low illumination, among which the probability of occurrence of low illumination disaster was higher in irrigated Guanyun, Guannan and lowest in Ganyu district, and the pure premium rate of meteorological disaster index insurance in Lianyungang was higher in south than in north, guannan County has the highest net rate, at 8.32 per cent on the light disaster payment trigger scale, while Ganyu district has the lowest, at 2.98%. The results of this study can provide scientific basis for the development of policy-based meteorological index insurance for rice in Lianyungang.

Key words: oligotropic meteorological disaster, meteorological index insurance, pure premium rate, Weibull distribution, Lianyungang city