关键词: 暖冬, 越冬作物, 冻害, 概率转移, 江汉平原

Abstract: In the background of global warming, the domestic weather increase is especially evident in winter. Through the analysis of 66 years’ meteorological materials in Zhongxiang National Basic Meteorological Station of Jianghan Plain, the trend and features of warm, normal, and cold winters are shown to testify the acceleration of warm winter as well as the new trend of climate change in winter. It would definitely speed up the growth process of winter crop （like rape, wheat, etc.） and step into the vegetative growth and reproductive development stages too early to resist cold, which would cause frozen damage and potential pest/disease damage. By means of Chapman-Kolmogorov transition probability analysis of different kinds of winter, we could make trend forecast of warm, normal, and cold year so as to take corresponding measures in advance.

Key words: warm winter, winter crop, frozen damage, transition probability, Jianghan Plain