关键词: 洪水灾害, 风险评价, 云模型, 熵权修正, 神农架林区

Abstract: The area of the size of 10 meters by 10 meters in Shennongjia forest region is used as the research unit, from the flood disaster loss causes and formation mechanism of the formation of the natural environment including hazard and disaster bearing capacity of two parts more than 20 indicators, the establishment of a comprehensive evaluation of flood risk model based on cloud model and entropy of each component. The mountain village flood risk from the cause of disaster and disaster damage causes the angle of index factor analysis, using reverse cloud generator method combined with entropy correction to determine the index weight at all levels, through the realization of GIS expression, spatial data and attribute data and evaluation metrics, finally obtain the weight of the water level rise of natural environment risk, 5 meters of flood intensity under the disaster disaster bearing capacity for flood risk assessment results represent natural values minus the disaster bearing capacity to flood risk assessment results, in order to provide scientific basis for forest planning. The results show that the distribution of forest disaster risk area wide, with a certain degree of concentration, mainly because of the natural environment risk degree is higher, while the economic development of backward areas, most disaster fortifications lack or not perfect; the distribution of Muyu town and Jiuhu town and Pine Town, Yangri Town, song Luo Xiang Eastern valley high risk. Ping Xiang, Xinhua Town and the cypress northern town of lower risk.

Key words: flood disaster, risk assessment, cloud model, entropy correction, Shennongjia forest region