关键词: Logistic模型, 土地流转, 农户意愿, 影响因素

Abstract: Based on the data of 167 questionnaires in 3 town 5 townships of Guangde county, Xuancheng, Anhui province, using logistic model to analyze the influencing factors of land transfer of peasant households, and the results show that： peasant households’ age, main economic source, household per capita income, family size, non-agricultural labor force, the circulation history and the circulation policy cognition have the remarkable influence on the peasant household land circulation. And older, their land transfer will be weak, farmers’s transfer will be weaker than non-agricultural income, the higher the household per capita income, the weaker the desire to transfer; the larger the family size, the weaker the turnover intention; The farmers who has the history of land transfer will is more than no land transfer, the higher the degree of policy awareness, the more willing to transfer. The three factors, such as education level, family labor quantity and endowment way, have no significant influence on Guangde county land circulation. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to promote Guangde land circulation and promote the development of modern agriculture.

Key words: Logistic model, land circulation, willingness of farmers, influence factors